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View Full Version : Sims in 2016, what'll they be like?



Lodovik
03-14-2006, 06:10 AM
Getting really bored waiting my new MoBo & other stuff to arrive. Quite a few hours to go before I can log to Steam and get Red Orchestra...

So I'm starting an old sim forum classic of a thread, ie.

What will sims be like X years to the future?

The BoB feature list contains quite a few things I've been waiting for a while now.
When the original Il-2 came out I noticed that the bullet holes were not dynamic. I made a note to self that the next gen sims will probably have them in... 2010. I was off by some 3 years it seems.
Also I talked with mates about different AI pilot personalities at the same time. A friend made a prediction of having them in 2012 or so. That's what you get by miscalculating Moores' law http://forums.ubi.com/images/smilies/16x16_smiley-very-happy.gif

Anyways, by 2016 photorealistic or movie level graphics could be available (with some pricey graphics cards, no doubt), but hopefully there'll be some more interesting developments too.

Ie. Fully dynamic online campaigns with thousands of planes and ground units participating. Including AI controlled units and an option to choose between historical scenarios or players affecting the outcome.
Not all these virtual battlefields need to be that big. Want to fly with your mates against another squadrons in your favourite frontline section in Eastern Front in the fall of 1943 or in Spain 1936? No problem: just set up maps and timeline from online mission generator and off you go.

What's your take on future sim developments?

Lodovik
03-14-2006, 06:10 AM
Getting really bored waiting my new MoBo & other stuff to arrive. Quite a few hours to go before I can log to Steam and get Red Orchestra...

So I'm starting an old sim forum classic of a thread, ie.

What will sims be like X years to the future?

The BoB feature list contains quite a few things I've been waiting for a while now.
When the original Il-2 came out I noticed that the bullet holes were not dynamic. I made a note to self that the next gen sims will probably have them in... 2010. I was off by some 3 years it seems.
Also I talked with mates about different AI pilot personalities at the same time. A friend made a prediction of having them in 2012 or so. That's what you get by miscalculating Moores' law http://forums.ubi.com/images/smilies/16x16_smiley-very-happy.gif

Anyways, by 2016 photorealistic or movie level graphics could be available (with some pricey graphics cards, no doubt), but hopefully there'll be some more interesting developments too.

Ie. Fully dynamic online campaigns with thousands of planes and ground units participating. Including AI controlled units and an option to choose between historical scenarios or players affecting the outcome.
Not all these virtual battlefields need to be that big. Want to fly with your mates against another squadrons in your favourite frontline section in Eastern Front in the fall of 1943 or in Spain 1936? No problem: just set up maps and timeline from online mission generator and off you go.

What's your take on future sim developments?

Bearcat99
03-14-2006, 06:26 AM
I asically agree with you .. especially by 2016... thats 10 years from now... and I look back at what was on the sim table in 1996.... and what we have today... and I know that the quality will most likely double in half the time. As far as the prices go.. I dont think they will be too much different from what they are today.... Keep in mind that when the 9800Pro128 first hit the market it was selling for $399... at least at the Best Buy I was working at at the time... now one can be had for less than one third of that price... and that was only 3 years ago. It does blow me away though that the 6800GT256OCd that I got from Best Buy when it first came out for $265 is still not under 300 yet....

I would love to see sims with all the things you mentioned... with graphics at least as good as Touchy's videos... and with every function in the cockpit being mappable to a key and with a corresponding switch/lever that moves in the pit. Being able to move it with a mouse is a non issue with me.. but being able to assign the function to a controller and seeig the switch move is great. I would also like to see FFB sticks, pedals and throttles and more modular controllers at a decent price... where say you could daisy chain as many USB controller modules as you needed.. be they throttles or button bays.... I would also love to see the price of the hydraulic stuff come down.

Genie-
03-14-2006, 06:48 AM
well.. all I know is that you would probably play IL2 on mobile phone http://forums.ubi.com/groupee_common/emoticons/icon_smile.gif in some "Oldies but goldies" all time classic game (mobile) pack http://forums.ubi.com/groupee_common/emoticons/icon_smile.gif

Lodovik
03-14-2006, 12:04 PM
<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote"><div class="ip-ubbcode-quote-title">quote:</div><div class="ip-ubbcode-quote-content">Originally posted by Genie-:
well.. all I know is that you would probably play IL2 on mobile phone http://forums.ubi.com/groupee_common/emoticons/icon_smile.gif </div></BLOCKQUOTE>

Considering that the thingy that by 2016 includes a phone will probably use some sort of tunable HUD system as a display, that's not so laughable as I first thought. http://forums.ubi.com/groupee_common/emoticons/icon_biggrin.gif
And judging from the trouble I went to be able to fire up Ye ol' original Red Baron now and then I'm sure I'll give Il-2 series a go long after it's actually obsolete http://forums.ubi.com/images/smilies/16x16_smiley-wink.gif

Bearcat, I'm with you in the controllers department. Those things you mentioned should really be made into an international law http://forums.ubi.com/groupee_common/emoticons/icon_biggrin.gif

I also started thinking about the trend of PC systems being tailored to specific purposes. With all the trouble in compatibility with the hardware from different manufacturers, I'd really welcome a ready-made PC set vaguely like &lt;shudder&gt; the XBox. However, one that was designed to run sims at perfect settings and smooth frame rates. As much as I dislike console games themselves, I gotta admit the 'Box is a sleek design that does what it's expected to.

I know, I know. Hell will freeze over and all that, but let an elderly gent have his naive pipe dreams...

PS. I wish Raaaid would hop into this thread and share some of his incomparable insights, as I'm afraid I'm one stuffy guy and eccentric as he may be, he actually has some weirdly fresh ideas in every post. Please?

russ.nl
03-14-2006, 12:22 PM
You will put in lenses that work as a screen, put in some kind of earplugs that work as speakers and have the abbilety to manipulate your sens of balance, and you will have a suit on that makes you feel what happens to you in the game. Not deadly ofcourse. There will be a small track device that tracks your whole body

robban75
03-14-2006, 12:25 PM
I managed to take this screenshot from my crystal ball.

http://www.honvedelem.hu/files/9/2706/gripen_p.jpg

Unfortunatelly I wasn't able to find out what this future sim was called. But the graphics look nice. Also, the plane of choice is excellent! http://forums.ubi.com/groupee_common/emoticons/icon_biggrin.gif

Waldo.Pepper
03-14-2006, 12:44 PM
I mentioned this on Sunday that flight sims will be dead - because vsex will be so good it wipe out all other categories.

Lucius_Esox
03-14-2006, 01:27 PM
Ten years goes so quickly imo. When did F4 come out? Janes WW2 fighters?

I think graphically things will be utterly amazing compared to today,,, gamewise,,, I'm not so sure as am pretty scared of "dumbing down" for the masses because that is where the cash is.

Hope I'm totally wrong though

IAP_6_Lusky
03-14-2006, 09:05 PM
I want to have my walls, ceilings, and floors covered in a thin film that works like a moniter in 2016. A true wrap around view.

jimDG
03-15-2006, 05:15 AM
In 2016 we'll have electricity only 5 hours a day, so there'll be no sims http://forums.ubi.com/groupee_common/emoticons/icon_smile.gif

Lodovik
03-15-2006, 08:19 AM
Oh they'll be around, JimDG...
Except that when oil runs out we'll be running them on our new and shiny Babbage Engines. That or powering our antique PCs' by treadmills. The virtual aces will be the ones with the best combination of reflexes, physical strength and stamina, like it used to be in real life http://forums.ubi.com/images/smilies/16x16_smiley-very-happy.gif

Worf101
03-15-2006, 08:21 AM
Pheh...
We'll all be drooling over Holodeck Porn by then as we scoot around the Alpha Quadrant.

Da Worfster

foxyboy1964
03-15-2006, 08:42 AM
I think (hope) that the big leaps will be in display technology. Wrap Around, V.R. or whatever. Something that means which ever direction I look in I can see only game world.

dazza9806482
03-15-2006, 09:00 AM
Only one thing concerns me, while all this new technology is really exciting its also increasingly costly to code for.

games on the cutting edge graphically such as FEAR and the new DOOM game are pushing millions of dollars for development.

hopefully theres some technological developments that reduce the workload meeting high production standards

but im worried that such a niche market such as PC flight sims will not really exist in 5 years in terms of the prohibitive costs of developing for cutting edge technology.

how many movies that dont have mass market appeal yet cost millions of dollars and represent the very best technology are made? there needs to be a guaranteed market or producers wont bother

then again who knows, many folks are pointing towards wikification as a possible development putting the load on the consumer

jimDG
03-15-2006, 09:33 AM
<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote"><div class="ip-ubbcode-quote-title">quote:</div><div class="ip-ubbcode-quote-content">Originally posted by Lodovik:
Oh they'll be around, JimDG...
Except that when oil runs out we'll be running them on our new and shiny Babbage Engines. That or powering our antique PCs' by treadmills. The virtual aces will be the ones with the best combination of reflexes, physical strength and stamina, like it used to be in real life http://forums.ubi.com/images/smilies/16x16_smiley-very-happy.gif </div></BLOCKQUOTE>

LOL, and the net wil be made of silk lines and push-rods http://forums.ubi.com/groupee_common/emoticons/icon_smile.gif (pull = 1, push = 0 http://forums.ubi.com/groupee_common/emoticons/icon_smile.gif)

rnzoli
03-15-2006, 10:57 AM
IMHO the next simming revolution will be outside the PCs, in the surrounding peripherals - viewing systems that give greater FOV, a sense of depth, affordable force feedback seats, pedals, sticks etc.

The key is immersion, and 100 planes in offline combat don't make much difference, if you can only meet 10-15 of them during your sortie anyway. Better AI isn't so important either, because the online combat will be the norm, not offline.

TPN_Cephas
03-15-2006, 11:58 AM
in 2016 patch 5.03 will be released, be sure.

elphifou
03-15-2006, 05:36 PM
Would be fun to be able to look back at this thread in ten years' time http://forums.ubi.com/groupee_common/emoticons/icon_smile.gif

Ob.Emann
03-15-2006, 06:57 PM
The year 2016............

Oleg will have passed on the reigns to a corrupt Russian entrepreneur. Maddox Games will officially be owned by the Russian mob.

As a result of mafia ownership, IC/Maddox will have practically unlimited funding.

800Mb NVidia 690000000000000000GTX video cards with cutting-edge cooling systems the size of a CD case.

Computer peripherals containing thousands of scented oils will simulate smells, such as gasoline, marine air, exhaust etc.

Panoramic glass screens will replace our traditional monitors. For an extra $300 (hopefully we'll still be using $$$ in 10 years), holographic displays are available.

Hyper-realistic grass!

Everything is force-feedback, including screen, and will be 100% reliable.

Servers will accomadate upwards of 1,000 aircraft with no frame-rate issues.

Duke Nukem Forever will be released after an unprecedented 20 year delay (hey, we're already approaching 10)

Forums will have virtual access to National Archives for all manners of airplane documentation, in the rare event of whining.

Dynamic weather will be a major feature. Light drizzles will develop into storms etc. as mission progresses, with realistic wind and precipitation.

Hayateace will turn 13 years old

Multi-seat aircraft will be fully modeled. Pilots can get out of their seat and walk about the aircraft, talk to crew, look at charts etc. (think 2016 version of Silent Hunter III).

For jet sim enthuisiasts, tiny eyepeices with full HUDs will show precise and important flight information (or porn).

Aircraft skinners will be able to cut and paste a paint scheme from an aircraft photo directly onto a virtual aircraft, with total accuracy.

In-game aircraft will appear so realistic, that the above feature will be nearly useless.


All in all, a VERY bright future ahead.

eskimo-again
03-15-2006, 07:17 PM
in 10 years someone will dig up this thread and we ll all have a good laugh at how wrong we were http://forums.ubi.com/groupee_common/emoticons/icon_smile.gif

Bearcat99
03-15-2006, 08:07 PM
<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote"><div class="ip-ubbcode-quote-title">quote:</div><div class="ip-ubbcode-quote-content">Originally posted by IAP_6_Lusky:
I want to have my walls, ceilings, and floors covered in a thin film that works like a moniter in 2016. A true wrap around view. </div></BLOCKQUOTE>

Thats is not as far fetched as it may sound..... OLED (http://www.universaldisplay.com/tech.htm). This technology already exists.. and we should be seeing it by late 07.

huggy87
03-15-2006, 10:59 PM
I think know matter how good the technology gets, it will still take a lot of man hours to produce quality individual aircraft. We may never again see the quantity of WW2 goodness that we currently have with 4.04m.

vanjast
03-15-2006, 11:40 PM
<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote"><div class="ip-ubbcode-quote-title">quote:</div><div class="ip-ubbcode-quote-content">Originally posted by Bearcat99:
<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote"><div class="ip-ubbcode-quote-title">quote:</div><div class="ip-ubbcode-quote-content">Originally posted by IAP_6_Lusky:
I want to have my walls, ceilings, and floors covered in a thin film that works like a moniter in 2016. A true wrap around view. </div></BLOCKQUOTE>

Thats is not as far fetched as it may sound..... OLED (http://www.universaldisplay.com/tech.htm). This technology already exists.. and we should be seeing it by late 07. </div></BLOCKQUOTE>

'Back to the future' has arrived...Yessssssss http://forums.ubi.com/groupee_common/emoticons/icon_biggrin.gif

ImpStarDuece
03-15-2006, 11:54 PM
I get the feeling that video game development is going to go big budget.

The closest historical approximation to the video game industry is the movie industry. Both started as something of a technological novelty and both have gone throught radical changes to their medium, marketplace, audience and ownership pattern.

Whereas once we saw game creation and publishing in the hands of companies that own the propriatry technology (Sega, Nintendo) and a large number of small 3rd party publishers, we are now seeing system developers mave away from software and focusing on hardware, leaving game development to large third party software houses and publishers.

Much like movies snowballed in cost and complexity in the 30s with the development of sound and colour and again after Star Wars and Jaws heralded the summer blockbuster revolution in the late 70s, so too has the development cost of video games as the introduction and development of graphics processors, 4th generation video game consoles and the internet create further industry driven innovation and higher audience demands.

Gone are the days of the 5 man team who did graphics, sounds, animation, coding and marketing. Now companies like EA, Rare, Blizzard and Sega often employ well over 100 concept, visual, sound and graphics artists, core and periphery programmers and a host of others in production.

In the early years of the millenium, video games made more money than Hollywood for about 3 years running. Large companies started to take notice of something that was for a long time considered something for children. Now we are seeing development and investment in gaming companies like never before.

Where to from here? My answer is MORE.

More cost to develop, program and market a sim. More detail, more steps towards graphical, sound and physics realism. Game that are more ex*****ve to buy. More corpratisation. More monopolisation of the market. More volume games, particularly in the home console market.

Maybe we will see the cost of some games crack the $50 million dollar mark. In 1995 it cost less than $1 million to develope a leading edge video game. In 1995 Shiny Entertainment spend over $20 million US developing 'Enter the Matrix'. Most games cost between 3 and 7 million dollars to develope. As the technology advances, so does the development casts. Who knows, in 25 years video games might be similar to movies in their production costs and values, aggressive marketing style and audience expectations.

The other development to look out for is the 'persistent online reality'. MMORPGS are really only the beginning. Imagine a simlation engine that allows players to engage in a massive, simultaneous, online recreation of famous battles or events in history, pitching thousands of like minded enthusiasts in together or against each other. WWIIOnline is a start, but its implementation is a little flawed and its more of a game than a sim.

compass1
03-16-2006, 03:00 AM
Has anyone considered the psychological effects of a totally emmersive sim? Imagine living in a virtual world for 5 hours with all the sights smells and feelings of loss, desperation, fatigue and stress. Even in WWII they say life was long periods of boredom interspersed with intense excitement, but with a sim you can have the excitement all the time. Could be a recipe for mental breakdown.

stathem
03-16-2006, 03:13 AM
<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote"><div class="ip-ubbcode-quote-title">quote:</div><div class="ip-ubbcode-quote-content">Originally posted by compass1:
Has anyone considered the psychological effects of a totally emmersive sim? Imagine living in a virtual world for 5 hours with all the sights smells and feelings of loss, desperation, fatigue and stress. Even in WWII they say life was long periods of boredom interspersed with intense excitement, but with a sim you can have the excitement all the time. Could be a recipe for mental breakdown. </div></BLOCKQUOTE>

Yes. Why do you think we haven't got it yet?

Seriously, this was heavily addressed in Cyberpunk and other Sci-Fi novels of the late '80s/early 90s. And we all know that they are the true drivers of technology.

Take that new 'Spore' sim. A similar concept was written up years ago in a novel by Greg Egan.

Capt.LoneRanger
03-16-2006, 03:40 AM
I was thinking about Spore, too. A complete new perspective and innovative design.

To the Cyberpunk thing:

Sony has been working on "interface plugs" (greets to all Cyberpunk2020/Shadowrun-RPG-fans) for years, now, and is working to get the full cyber-entertainment rolling. Their prospective view is that in 2020 - 2030 it will be possible to link a computer directly to a brain or the nervous system. While the method is not clear yet (a neural suit, a helmet, etc are in developement), it's the goal to actually implement the person in the game. No more monitor, no more boxes, no Joysticks, no TrackIR. Everything will be controlled by neural input and feedback.

Dunno how realistic the timetable is, but yes, this will come. http://forums.ubi.com/images/smilies/blink.gif

The-Pizza-Man
03-16-2006, 03:57 AM
Well this is the difference 6 years makes
http://skydig.free.fr/flightsim/album/fs98.jpg
http://www.megascenery.com/images/vol4/gallery/sthelens7.jpg

stathem
03-16-2006, 04:37 AM
<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote"><div class="ip-ubbcode-quote-title">quote:</div><div class="ip-ubbcode-quote-content">Originally posted by Capt.LoneRanger:
I was thinking about Spore, too. A complete new perspective and innovative design.

To the Cyberpunk thing:

Sony has been working on "interface plugs" (greets to all Cyberpunk2020/Shadowrun-RPG-fans) for years, now, and is working to get the full cyber-entertainment rolling. Their prospective view is that in 2020 - 2030 it will be possible to link a computer directly to a brain or the nervous system. While the method is not clear yet (a neural suit, a helmet, etc are in developement), it's the goal to actually implement the person in the game. No more monitor, no more boxes, no Joysticks, no TrackIR. Everything will be controlled by neural input and feedback.

Dunno how realistic the timetable is, but yes, this will come. http://forums.ubi.com/images/smilies/blink.gif </div></BLOCKQUOTE>

Yeah, can't wait, just hope I've got long enough left to see it.

I'd settle for a really good VR helmet, but whether there's enough money in flight sims for it to be implemented for 'us' (unless as a side effect for other genres) is a moot point, even though one would suspect that it would be at it's best in the flight sim genre.

Thinking on, I can't remember if it was Gibson or Neal Stephenson wrote about a character playing a fully immersive game, but the game had a routine that 'dumped' you back in reality automatically every hour or so that you didn't lose the plot.

Capt.LoneRanger
03-16-2006, 04:44 AM
Falcon 1987/88
http://www.tok2.com/home/avionics/falcon2/f16-cockpit.gif

Falcon 2.0 1989
http://lazarus.elte.hu/hun/digkonyv/szakdolg/katona/image/amiga_game/100_01_falcon_minimap.jpg

Falcon 3.0 1991
http://www.dosgamesarchive.com/download/falcon3.gif

Falcon 4.0 1998
http://www.rom.gr/ROM7/images/i/falcon4_2.jpg

Falcon 4 AF 2005 (remake)
http://www.buddy-spike.de/47df/clouds1.jpg

http://forums.ubi.com/images/smilies/16x16_smiley-surprised.gif

Lucius_Esox
03-16-2006, 04:54 AM
Remember reading somewhere about the designing of flight sims for the military.

A standard joke is if you let pilots design it they would end up making the aeroplane!!

Hmmm, trying to create "reality" an odd concept http://forums.ubi.com/groupee_common/emoticons/icon_smile.gif http://forums.ubi.com/images/smilies/53.gif

rnzoli
03-16-2006, 07:45 AM
<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote"><div class="ip-ubbcode-quote-title">quote:</div><div class="ip-ubbcode-quote-content">Originally posted by Capt.LoneRanger:
it's the goal to actually implement the person in the game. No more monitor, no more boxes, no Joysticks, no TrackIR. Everything will be controlled by neural input and feedback. </div></BLOCKQUOTE>
It will be difficult to tell, whether you play the game, or the game plays with you. http://forums.ubi.com/images/smilies/blink.gif

Maybe the roles in this icon http://forums.ubi.com/images/smilies/compsmash.gif will have to be reversed... http://forums.ubi.com/groupee_common/emoticons/icon_wink.gif

Capt.LoneRanger
03-16-2006, 08:42 AM
Even worse, rnzoli.

Imagine M$ would still build the OperatingSystem - sooner or later we'd all up as Zombies with only Bluescreens and buisy-symbols in our minds.

We all will need reset-buttons, then. http://forums.ubi.com/images/smilies/blink.gif

stathem
03-16-2006, 08:44 AM
<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote"><div class="ip-ubbcode-quote-title">quote:</div><div class="ip-ubbcode-quote-content">Originally posted by Capt.LoneRanger:

sooner or later we'd all up as Zombies with only Bluescreens and buisy-symbols in our minds.

</div></BLOCKQUOTE>

Hey! I get that now...

(too obvious)

major_setback
03-17-2006, 07:28 AM
1). A touch sensitive screen so you can move the switches and dials.

2). Self cleaning screens! http://forums.ubi.com/images/smilies/35.gif