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View Full Version : Online,do you guys have good and bad streeks of luck?



fordfan25
02-18-2007, 10:40 AM
"? just woundering. not like i have all a sudden been getting ***'ed raped on warclouds in the most stupid ways this week or anything http://forums.ubi.com/images/smilies/88.gif

BrewsterPilot
02-18-2007, 10:43 AM
Hell yea! Usually I get pwned all the time, but sometimes I just am "King of the Skies"!

voyager_663rd
02-18-2007, 10:51 AM
Yuppers. Sometimes I can do no wrong. Sometimes, I get my butt handed to me on a platter.

And flying more often or less often has no bearing on how good or bad I am.

msalama
02-18-2007, 11:17 AM
H3ll yeah, and I've actually just had maybe the _worst_ bad streak ever: flew ten AW missions or so & got killed like 8 times http://forums.ubi.com/images/smilies/compsmash.gif

But it's turned for the better again I hope - still not doing stellarly, but at least I'm not DYING all the time http://forums.ubi.com/images/smilies/16x16_smiley-indifferent.gif http://forums.ubi.com/groupee_common/emoticons/icon_biggrin.gif

fordfan25
02-18-2007, 11:41 AM
yea this week iv been on my worst streek.started off i was on my longist kill streek in WC. the one day i was chaseing a Ju88. i was well outa range,he drops his mini nuckes thay go off FAR ahead off me. figure fine. im far enough back i am normaly plenty safe from his explosion. by the time i get to the place were his bombs went off even the dust cloud has started to settle yet i explod lol. its just gotten worse sence then. i had 9 deaths and 20 something kills on the WC stats at the start of last week. now im at about 24 deaths and only a hanfull more kills http://forums.ubi.com/images/smilies/bigtears.gif seems every shot eather misses targets or does no damnge yet even my tough as nails tempist has been poping wings off and getting PK's after just a couple hits http://forums.ubi.com/images/smilies/51.gif o well. even had a few were i fogot landing gear LOL. horrible week for me online.Im expecting next flight to get sucked into one of raiiiids free energy time looping black holes http://forums.ubi.com/images/smilies/88.gif

Altocirrus
02-18-2007, 12:11 PM
My degree of success is changing all the time! Glad to know I'm not the only one.

A while back, I finally got to grips with the Fw190A. Over a few sessions I managed to pull off textbook BnZs, downing 5-6 aircraft a flight and returning to base. That didn't last long though. i can't explain what changed, it was just... luck.

Recently, I managed to take my defection shooting skills to a new level in the Yak-3. I truly felt part of the plane and felt invincible... for a while. After a week or so I became easy prey for La7s and D-9s... for some reason.

I'm currently on a bit of a roll on the jet servers with the mig-9. Not quite as spectacular as the other two, but still good by my standards. But it looks as if the Komet pilots are plotting against me now http://forums.ubi.com/images/smilies/10.gif

SeaFireLIV
02-18-2007, 12:26 PM
I get good and bad streaks, like the waves of the sea bringing good or bad.

Like my last online mission which I stupidly decided to lead (when I knew I shouldn`t have), not knowing the terrain and being rather tired at near midnight. My startup was rubbish, and I got completely lost. Add to that the fact that everyone then lost confidence in me and started doing their own thing, the whole thing became a mess. I rarely lead (and probably even less now), but normally when I do I`d have been better prepared than I was.

Sun Tsu would`ve had a few things to say about my mistakes there...

Xiolablu3
02-18-2007, 12:32 PM
Yeah man for sure.

I find its much easier to stay alive without getting killed in the fast planes like the Dora.

Flying manouvrable turn fighting planes like Me109's and SPits you are more likely to have runs of bad luck and good luck.

Using a fast plane with big guns, like the Dora, you can always use your speed to ensure you are in a good position when you attack, therefore leaving less to chance.

Dora is the easiest plane to get long kill streaks in, and to stay alive in.

With slower planes like the SPitfire, you may get a streak of 3 or 4, but there will always be somone in a faster plane, waiting to pounce, and when they do you can not get away from him without luck, you have to just keep avoiding. He will get you eventually if hes good enough.

VMF-214_HaVoK
02-18-2007, 12:41 PM
As of late, yes. I just got TIR4 a few days ago and I have been taking some lumps for sure. I had a k/d ratio in ZvW over 6.0 and now Im down too 4.55 now I think. Im getting better with it and starting to really enjoy it but I still have frustrating moments.

Warrington_Wolf
02-18-2007, 01:08 PM
I play mostly offline and I too have times when things just don't seem to go my way. Those are times where I not only get shot down a lot but also miss targets that are sitting ducks. I also tend to do other stupid things at times like this, such as flying too low during a strafing run and hitting nearby objects (including the ground target I am attacking).
When I have these poor runs of luck, I leave the sim for a few days or even weeks. I was having a terrible run of luck on my current campaign and so I decided to play Lock On instead. I found that a change is better than a rest, plus I learned a lot more about modern air combat.
I have a friend who plays football games on his Xbox and when he is playing like England (2006 team not the 1966 team) he leaves it alone and plays shoot em ups instead, when he goes back to the footy game he has his edge back.

Hope this helps, happy flying.

Waldo.Pepper
02-18-2007, 03:11 PM
Luck is a primitive, archaic term for processes we do not yet understand.

FritzGryphon
02-18-2007, 03:26 PM
Since surviving in the game is completely controlled by the pilot, I wouldn't attribute losing streaks to luck, or even to complicated external factors.

You're just playing bad and should shape up.

Because there are three players of IL-2. Ones that modify their tactics when they are killed, those who blame supernatural factors and never improve, and those who want to lose because it reinforces their victim mentality (plane porked, hacks, etc).

T_O_A_D
02-18-2007, 03:33 PM
Short this stain, whats a streak? http://forums.ubi.com/images/smilies/53.gif

JG14_Josf
02-18-2007, 03:42 PM
Fly with a wingman and blame all the bad luck on him!

Viper2005_
02-18-2007, 03:48 PM
Totally disagree Fritz. Luck is very important in determining things like kill streaks.

The player does not have total control over whether he lives or dies.

Most of the time that control is in the hands of the enemy pilots shooting at you, the AI AAA gunners etc.

Good pilots expose themselves to lower risks than bad pilots, and give themselves higher chances of scoring kills. But that doesn't mean that they can't have bad luck.

For example, imagine tossing a coin. Heads you rack up a "kill". Tails you stop your streak. Toss that coin for long enough and you'll probably end up with at least one or two fairly long kill streaks, even though your average k/d should only be about 1.

Using a dice you can approximate a range of K/Ds. You'll still see similar behaviour. Intuitively I would expect kill streaks to fall along a Rayleigh distribution, since P(kill) and P(death) are sensibly independent of each other.

http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/6/6a/Rayleigh_distributionPDF.png/800px-Rayleigh_distributionPDF.png

If your K/D is sigma, the above diagram shows what sort of shape the distribution of your kill streaks should look like. Note that as K/D increases the variance of kill streak values tends to increase quite rapidly.

Since most stats servers log best kill streak, you only have to get lucky once to have an impressive streak and therefore it is not uncommon to see pilots with K/Ds of 2 or so bringing in streaks of 10-20, though this isn't helped by hitting ground targets!

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rayleigh_distribution

FritzGryphon
02-18-2007, 04:00 PM
I agree 100% that your sortie to sortie success rate will vary on a curve.

However, a protracted period of bad performance over many days suggests poor play style, and not just a statistical anomoly. The longer the period of poor performance, the more likely it is, if fact, due to bad tactical thinking.

It's also likely that a concious critique of one's own tactics will stop the bad streak, regardless of it's cause. If nothing else it would promote positive thinking by visualizing success, rather than dwelling on being in a bad streak of luck.

Warrington_Wolf
02-18-2007, 04:10 PM
Originally posted by FritzGryphon:
Since surviving in the game is completely controlled by the pilot, I wouldn't attribute losing streaks to luck, or even to complicated external factors.

You're just playing bad and should shape up.

Because there are three players of IL-2. Ones that modify their tactics when they are killed, those who blame supernatural factors and never improve, and those who want to lose because it reinforces their victim mentality (plane porked, hacks, etc).
I wasn't trying to blame losing streaks on sheer bad luck alone, as I said about crashing into ground targets that I was strafing. I know that is poor flying on my part and that is why I go on another sim or game. Chance does play a part in the sim (as in any other game), situations that are out of your control arise that can work for or against you.

GR142-Pipper
02-19-2007, 03:23 AM
Originally posted by fordfan25:
"? just woundering. not like i have all a sudden been getting ***'ed raped on warclouds in the most stupid ways this week or anything http://forums.ubi.com/images/smilies/88.gif It happens to everyone. Sometimes the breaks just don't fall your way and sometimes they do. It's best to look at the overall picture rather than the day to day.

GR142-Pipper

GR142-Pipper
02-19-2007, 03:24 AM
Originally posted by JG14_Josf:
Fly with a wingman and blame all the bad luck on him! Off topic for this thread...I saw your pictures of the Nellis airshow and wondered what type of camera equipment do you use. Your photos are very well done. Nice job.

GR142-Pipper

PFflyer
02-19-2007, 07:14 AM
99% of the time you get shot down it will be because you did something stupid, or you willfully put yourself in the path of danger so you could have fun.

If you are smart and you really want to, you can fly mission after mission and not get shot down or lose your virtual life. This does not happen too often though because flying historical tactics to preserve yourself and your aircraft are too boring for you "gamers".

Of course your egos need excuses as to why you are failing at your task, you need to blame it on something, so that is the reason for this thread, you are seeking comfort to soothe your egos, you need to blame your lack of success on something besides the fact that you are unskilled and stupid.

That is about it.....

SeaFireLIV
02-19-2007, 07:18 AM
Originally posted by PFflyer:
99% of the time you get shot down it will be because you did something stupid, or you willfully put yourself in the path of danger so you could have fun.

If you are smart and you really want to, you can fly mission after mission and not get shot down or lose your virtual life. This does not happen too often though because flying historical tactics to preserve yourself and your aircraft are too boring for you "gamers".

Of course your egos need excuses as to why you are failing at your task, you need to blame it on something, so that is the reason for this thread, you are seeking comfort to soothe your egos, you need to blame your lack of success on something besides the fact that you are unskilled and stupid.

That is about it.....

LOL. I love these robot-like self congratulatory, `I`m better because I don`t believe in luck , God or anything with an unmeasurable factor` posts.

ploughman
02-19-2007, 07:20 AM
Don't worry, the gods have a way of dealing with hubris, his nemesis awaits, touch wood. http://forums.ubi.com/groupee_common/emoticons/icon_wink.gif

rnzoli
02-19-2007, 08:49 AM
LOL too, I guess PFflyer believes in TOTAL CONTROL over the engagements, including the controvertial thing called 'disco' http://forums.ubi.com/groupee_common/emoticons/icon_smile.gif

Back on topic, I only have bad and worse streaks, but stats don't ruin my enjoyment. If you commit to a server, a lot of things can be out of your control, such as
- opponent qualities
- current mission objectives
- remaining targets
- friendly qualities (dummies on your side is bad enough, but too many experts on your side is equally bad- you need to do special stunts, if you want to get any kill, and you might get killed easily during those stunts)

Viper2005_
02-19-2007, 09:34 AM
Originally posted by FritzGryphon:
I agree 100% that your sortie to sortie success rate will vary on a curve.

However, a protracted period of bad performance over many days suggests poor play style, and not just a statistical anomoly. The longer the period of poor performance, the more likely it is, if fact, due to bad tactical thinking.

It's also likely that a concious critique of one's own tactics will stop the bad streak, regardless of it's cause. If nothing else it would promote positive thinking by visualizing success, rather than dwelling on being in a bad streak of luck.

Well yes, but only if you define the length of your bad streak in relation to the length of time you've been playing rather than an absolute value, since if you play for long enough you can expect to have very long streaks of good and bad luck measured in absolute terms (which of course would still be short in relation to the total length of time spent playing).

msalama
02-19-2007, 10:06 AM
Well, TBH it's actually mostly you, and not some supernatural phenomenon called "luck" IMHO too. I did use the expression "bad streak" when I described my recent hapless doings online, true, but the real reason was that I did NOT use my brains AT ALL for awhile there! Which again is just natural when you get back home all fecked from work http://forums.ubi.com/images/smilies/35.gif

But to make a long story short I'm using them again and that seems to help http://forums.ubi.com/groupee_common/emoticons/icon_biggrin.gif

Kernow
02-19-2007, 10:07 AM
Yes.

The better a good streak is the more bizarre and unlikely is the manner of it's ending, I find.

Kernow
02-19-2007, 10:17 AM
Originally posted by PFflyer:
...

If you are smart and you really want to, you can fly mission after mission and not get shot down or lose your virtual life. This does not happen too often though because flying historical tactics to preserve yourself and your aircraft are too boring for you "gamers".
....
Yea, if you're a light-weight, shandy-drinking fighter pilot who just sticks to the rear echelons and never crosses the front and certainly never risks his ego against the flak gunners by flying a bomber or fighter-bomber mission. http://forums.ubi.com/images/smilies/16x16_smiley-wink.gif

JG52Karaya-X
02-19-2007, 10:19 AM
Originally posted by Kernow:
Yes.

The better a good streak is the more bizarre and unlikely is the manner of it's ending, I find.

Yes, like getting pilot-killed by your own AAA over the airfield after a 20 mission streak, there's nothing you can do about it, BS just happens... http://forums.ubi.com/images/smilies/16x16_smiley-indifferent.gif

Kernow
02-19-2007, 10:34 AM
Originally posted by JG52Karaya-X:
<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote"><div class="ip-ubbcode-quote-title">quote:</div><div class="ip-ubbcode-quote-content">Originally posted by Kernow:
Yes.

The better a good streak is the more bizarre and unlikely is the manner of it's ending, I find.

Yes, like getting pilot-killed by your own AAA over the airfield after a 20 mission streak, there's nothing you can do about it, BS just happens... http://forums.ubi.com/images/smilies/16x16_smiley-indifferent.gif </div></BLOCKQUOTE>
Ah, you know exactly the sort of thing I'm talking about! http://forums.ubi.com/images/smilies/16x16_smiley-wink.gif

Lucius_Esox
02-19-2007, 10:59 AM
Because there are three players of IL-2. Ones that modify their tactics when they are killed, those who blame supernatural factors and never improve, and those who want to lose because it reinforces their victim mentality (plane porked, hacks, etc).

Uhmmm, I can add a fourth here. What about someone who doesn't care that much and who just enjoys the fight, normally pretty innebriated.. http://forums.ubi.com/images/smilies/53.gif

I have been genuinley shocked when I have checked my stats and seen whats been happening.

I do think it can be easy to get into a mindset that allows you to have the advantage over certain types of player and be disadvanteged against others, depends who's about on the night.

msalama
02-19-2007, 12:11 PM
I have been genuinley shocked when I have checked my stats and seen whats been happening.

But didn't you just say you don't care that much http://forums.ubi.com/groupee_common/emoticons/icon_wink.gif

But anyway, I do profess having occasionally belonged to that fourth class you mentioned myself, too... like every Friday nite or so http://forums.ubi.com/groupee_common/emoticons/icon_biggrin.gif

venny1962
02-19-2007, 05:32 PM
well i probably have the best streak goin in the game, maybe the history of the game right now. for every sortie i get a death!!