All I can say is, poor buggers. This was the revolt of the Iranian middle class, its educated, professional, and pro-Western class. It was Iran's 1848. Iran has a long way to go to be a place congenial to them. Ahmadinejad is a reformer to most of the country. He has been busting corrupt officials. He is also a crazed millenarian who might get Iran into a hellish mess. When a guy like this is the most popular pol, Iran has a long way to go. Too bad so many are going to die, be tortured, and be imprisoned.

Looks like a color revolution to me (this one is green, how nice). I predict (with some reserve, things could really be goosed hard with some good bombings...) that it peters out to nothing (not much more blood, at all, no more big demos etc) since the underlying dynamic, for Iranians, is the poor and rural as against the monied elite. Sure not that simple..... but that dynamic <is> impacting and perhaps dominating. Tehran is not Iran.

There is no basis in fact for assuming the election was rigged. Or rather I should say that, in my opinion, and based on a sweep of the net (‘alternet’ stuff plus MSM) I have seen no theory of the crime. Unlike other recent disputed elections, where motive and opportunity (to rig a vote) can be seen to cross neatly with possible mechanisms (ie no paper etc etc), the Iran election was by all accounts a stunning exercise of democracy. Really.

In the weeks leading up to the election, we see an interested involved electorate, thousands of local meetings with full community involvement, discussion (and <free> discussion) of deep impacting issues to Iran, a distinct lack (relatively) of spin and soundbites, just all around a different world (to a Canuck). Then election day is orderly and turnout is massive, paper ballots are counted with oversight by all interested parties, a verifiable “chain of custody” trail of paper is laid from beginning to end.... and to counter? The rigging? The cheat? What happened? Where exactly could it have? No.... no, sadly we hear of no coherent theory of the crime, let alone proof. We do see interesting tactics on election day, however, with the the loser (Moussavi) calling a win preemptively (where did I see that before? Hmmmm ) two hours or so before the real winner, Ahmadinejad. No, I see only assumption and innuendo, I have heard no mechanism proposed, just that it happened, or must have, because evil Ahmadinejad, who dreams of a green glass factory in Israels place, he couldn’t have won, <surely> the people are rising up...?? Hahahahah eh heheh heh dear me our poor poor noses, not again...

Since I believe the election results indicate the will of the electorate, and since I do not believe in Iran as a threat of any kind to the west, I conclude the fuss we are seeing concerns efforts at destabilization as appears to be ongoing in Pakistan. Get a brush fire going (Honduras anyone?), that’s the idea. My prediction is Iranians work it out, despite the millions and the outside pressure, and dodge the trap.

Twitter revolution indeed.... ha ha ha twitter a cover for the pretty theft of the trillions more like... obamessiah (say it out loud) Obamessiah better be or we got probs, trillions is as trillions does, and ownership papers to the continent are a pretty prize..

gkII I think you better put down whatever you're smoking and maybe talk to some real Iranians like I have and stop sounding like a mouthpiece for the regime's propagandists. Not pro-Shah exiles but sutdents and others who were born during the revolution and want real change. I suppose you think the football players who wore green armbands were CIA agents? There is plenty of evidence the movement for reform comes from within. It is not as simple as rural vs. urban (see this article), nor are the hundreds of thousands who used "Twitter" and the internet were NOT foreign agents either, just people trying to bypass censorship. Maybe you forgot that Mousavi (who had the post of PM during the Iran-Iraq war) and the other opposition leaders were part of the revolution, and were vetted by the religious leadership before running.

In any case while there is some indication of fraud and a power struggle: Analysis 1

Analysis 2

and predictions of the current bloodshed

blood

Can you tell me what justification for the current repression? Given the bad perception, it might make sense to ahve a recount, if Ahmadinejad won, what are they afraid of? Why treat the young woman's family (Neda the bystander shot by a militiaman) in this manner?

Family evicted

I wish people would stop being apoligists for the big AND small a**h****s of the world and realise small countires have dirty politcs as much as big ones, and it's always the same people who pay.

Joeap

Agree fully persian politics is deep and complex as your blood link shows. Also that a secular modernist pushback against the clerics is impacting. And this is in turn all crossed with the element I pointed out (poor and rural against tehran and otherwise the monied elite), which is where the vote ratio comes from. The poor people voted and Ahmadinejad was their guy.

My point is this already fragile situation is being goosed good with millions of dollars and lots of foreign interference, for what exact end I can't see. Maybe chaos is really the point, ie I agree Moussavi and Ahmadinejad are similar in many ways, Moussavi seems to have a bloodier past..? Anyways given where the real power lies it is not so significant who is president, outside forces maybe don't actually care. US for eg has in many ways over many years pursued, openly, the goal of destabilizing the revolutionaries and many powerful americans have spoken long and passionately on the need for regime change. And we do see some MSM coverage of the Shah's son warming up in the wings, just in case?

Mostly what you say and I said are actually compatible. I wonder however if you think the vote was rigged? And if you think the protesters represent the majority will of Iranians?

quote:

Originally posted by gkll:
I wonder however if you think the vote was rigged? And if you think the protesters represent the majority will of Iranians?

..... If the multiple election analyses I have read are accurate, it is difficult to accept that the vote was NOT rigged.

Reinforcing this assessment is the notable absence of counter-demonstrations in support of Ahmadinejad. If he indeeed won 66 pct of the vote, there should have been massive shows of support for him in the streets. I am aware of none. In the "good old days" the mullahs could mobilize massive chanting crowds in Teheran replete with obligatory "Death to America" signage. Where are they now?

Even if the Islamist theocratic regime of the mullahs survives this crisis, it is a "dead man walking" metaphorically speaking. The mullahs have irretrievably lost their moral and political legitimacy in the eyes of the public at large as well as the allegiance of the young generation of educated Iranians from whom the future leadership of Iran must be drawn. The regime has been revealed as an internally competing clique of kleptocrats and apocalyptic religious fanatics who harbor little regard for the general welfare of the Iranian people. If it is not toppled by this current spate of public unrest, it will inevitably rot from the inside and ultimately collapse. It is just a question of time at this point.

My opinion, of course.

This message has been edited. Last edited by: Blutarski2004,

Well takes all kinds I guess.

I did a recheck looking for a coherent theory of the crime and failed to find one. You guys got anything real let me know.

Eg checking out time to declare ("MUCH too fast all those millions.... must be fraud...!) - Canadian elections with a very similar system of party monitors and handcounts are usually declared within 2-3 hours. <Moussavi> was the guy declared himself the winner first.


This thing seems to be an internal power struggle kicked into hyperdrive by external goosing of money, expertise and public western political pressure. Im also thinking the educated somewhat westernised moderates do not gain much if anything with Moussavi, and an associated and more serious problem is that the guy the people get to elect (the president) is not really in charge of all that much... the clerics hold that tight. So call Iran a semi-democracy... point is why waste all the energy (lives) concerning a presidential election when the real problem (for the moderates) is the clerics?

A real populist uprising of a majority is hard to stop (if it can be) and hundreds if not thousands typically die. If that comes real I believe we'll see it media restrictions or no. we've gotten an accurate 'count' to date and many many are watching. I don't think we'll see it because I don't believe the basis in population is there, and because the people who are agitating stand to gain so little (relatively).

quote:

Originally posted by BoCfuss:

quote:

Originally posted by K_Freddie:
As I've mentioned before...
Don't waste your time,lives, money and effort meddling in other countries affairs... They'll sort themselves out, and then it's business as usual.

Please do not come up with the Good, Bad and Ugly.. we've seen this, even in the so called 'Good West'

Like Bosnia or Argentina? I'm sorry but there are "Good, Bad, and Ugly" people out there. Anyone who is willng to fight for their freedom should be backed by the "good west." If they ask for help, it should be given, if they ask. They are asking.

Not a problem, but I certainly will not send my children there... you can

quote:

Originally posted by gkll:
Well takes all kinds I guess.

I did a recheck looking for a coherent theory of the crime and failed to find one. You guys got anything real let me know.

..... Try these:

http://online.wsj.com/article/...502114089613711.html

http://www.guardian.co.uk/worl...ion-analysis-figures

http://www.nytimes.com/2009/06...ddleeast/13iran.html

http://www.chathamhouse.org.uk...iranelection0609.pdf

http://www.juancole.com/2009/0...ranian-election.html

http://www.washingtonpost.com/...AR2009062000004.html

http://www.montrealgazette.com...s/1718865/story.html

http://blogs.abcnews.com/thenu...e-odds-of-fraud.html

http://www-personal.umich.edu/...ne/note18jun2009.pdf

http://www.dailykos.com/story/...the-Iranian-Election

http://www.islamonline.net/ser..._Affairs%2FMAELayout

http://blogs.smithsonianmag.co...9s-election-results/

http://www.nolanchart.com/article6571.html

http://www.irantracker.org/ana...ble-victory-khamenei

http://election.princeton.edu/...-pre-election-polls/

http://www.memri.org/bin/artic...s&Area=ia&ID=IA52209

http://www.apj.us/index.php?op...iew&id=2455&Itemid=2

..... Here's another hint that the Iranian presidential election may not have been on the "up and up":


http://www.nytimes.com/2009/07..._r=1&ref=todayspaper

Looks like the same as our election... a lot of 'rigging' also.

..... and here is another news item about the Iranian election fraud:


http://business.maktoob.com/20...on_fraud/Article.htm

quote:

Originally posted by Blutarski2004:
At the risk of over-simplifying an unquestionably complicated situation inside Iran, I strongly suspect that the demise of the radical Islamist theocracy, if not immediately imminent, is now guaranteed. They have irretrievably lost the support of the urban populace as well as the young and educated class from whom must come the future leaders of Iran.

+1

Been out of town (not that people were waiting with bated breath for my next radical posting haha). Blutarski you sent a lot of links. The first thing I notice is that perhaps a third of them were greyed out meaning I have already looked at them. Hmmm suggests we read the same thing and you see proof and I see supposition.

Im a busy guy as we all are so I may or may not reengage on this. Probably best is to find a pithy summary which more or less captures my position and link that.

Off the top of my head the final link you posted provides more inference they were NOT rigged as were, same for the guardian link in the previous post.

I have a background in modelling and advanced statistics and if there is no reference to the form of the data associated with known fair elections almost anything can be found which may or may not be in context.

The correct position will not be defined by who makes the best prediction, however I do stand by my predictions. Time will tell on that, as for the previous thread on 'that Georgia thing', there was a lot of pretty over the top inferences concerning who did what to who when and what the outcome was likely to be. So I did well on that one with my rad views which commonly are in conflict with mainstream media. I guess I have come to believe our media is Pravda lite, just that, unlike Russians, we don't know it is Pravda of a sort....

Gday all

http://www.hulu.com/watch/1677...al-short-iran-so-far