If you were Franklin Roosevelt, and you, indeed, knew the Japanese were going to strike Pearl Harbor, would you let them in order to side step the America First movement and the isolationists who were in the majority in December 1941? Most important, since your primary concern was reinforcing Europe before the Germans overran the USSR, how could you be confident that the Germans would declare war on the U.S. after the Japanese attacked the U.S. (as Hitler actually did---some believe this was his greatest blunder of the war)?

Hmmm, I'd for sure make sure my carriers were at sea. Seriously though, no I wouldn't let the fleet be attacked, but then I'm not Machiavellian enough, perhaps he was. If he'd known and sortied the fleet to prevent it being destroyed in harbour, which is what I would have done, the Japanese would have retired, announced they'd been on exercise and there would've been no cassus belli. That is as long as all the other Japanese offensive actions throughout Asia that were timed to co-incide with the Pearl Harbour raid were similarily abandoned.

Assuming Pearl Harbour, had Germany not declared war on the USA, FDR could have declared the US beset by an...'Axis of Evil,' announced the Roosevelt Doctrine to be the neutralisation and democratisation of rogue states, and kicked **** anyway.

If I had been FDR I can't imagine I would have let Japan have a free shot at Pearl. However, as you suggest, how would he (I) have convinced the American people that they were indeed under threat?

I suppose it's possible that America could have beefed up its presence in the Pacific to the extent that Japan wouldn't have dared attack, and thus avoided any involvement in WWII. But if that had happened I, and the rest of western Europe, would probably be speaking Russian today.

One way of looking at your question is was the post war world worth the sacrifice of the American servicemen killed at Pearl Harbour? I can't comment on that Leit, only an American can. But I am very grateful for it.

quote:

Originally posted by foxyboy1964:
If I had been FDR I can't imagine I would have let Japan have a free shot at Pearl. However, as you suggest, how would he (I) have convinced the American people that they were indeed under threat?

I suppose it's possible that America could have beefed up its presence in the Pacific to the extent that Japan wouldn't have dared attack, and thus avoided any involvement in WWII. But if that had happened I, and the rest of western Europe, would probably be speaking Russian today.

One way of looking at your question is was the post war world worth the sacrifice of the American servicemen killed at Pearl Harbour? I can't comment on that Leit, only an American can. But I am very grateful for it.

Agree 100%. And it's nice to see someone write that Western Europe would be speaking Russian now if it wasn't for the US...too often we get told we'd be speaking German.

To answer the question, I think that in his position I would have allowed the attack to proceed, but taken steps to ensure that casualties and risks were minimized. It seems very cold to play God with people's lives like that, but these were different times and it was sometimes necessary to sacrifice lives.

Well, my 2 cents worth. They could have been ready , and the carriers ready to launch a counter-attack...Japan still would have been presented as the aggressor and I doubt they would have stopped their attacks against SE Asia including the Philippines. I still think the Japanese would have got the better end of the stick as they did elsewhere when the defenders knew they were coming anyway.

That still would have left the Germans, and I do not know...btw for foxyboy and mitch, good point but in 1941 no one gave the Russians any chance of surviving the German onslaught so as far as FDR knew it was to save Europe from German domination. Thank goodness Hitler was foolish.

Just in case other readers ask...the Tripartite Pact obliged the signatories to come to the aid of a partner who was attacked....there was no such obligation if one of the signatories opened hostilities against a third party.

Here are the links:

in english

...and in German!!!


BTW a little known fact is when Barbarossa started, the head of the Soviet Navy, Kuznetsov actually ordered his fleet on high alert and they avoided the catastrophe (at first) that the rest of the military suffered in the early hours of the attack.

I agree with joeap, I would have set up a secret counter attack and as soon as the Japanese made an aggressive enough move toward pearl stomp the crap out of them, then he still would have had provocation for war and pearl would have been better off. This is the very reason why I don't beleive they truly knew the attack was comming, we were in such a poor position to fight the japanese after pearl harbor that to have let this happen on purpose was too much of a risk to the nation itself. To have been better prepared and let some sort of attack through but then stopped it before the real dammage was done would be the wiser move if they had known.

leitmotiv:

quote:

If you were Franklin Roosevelt, and you, indeed, knew the Japanese were going to strike Pearl Harbor, would you let them in order to side step the America First movement and the isolationists who were in the majority in December 1941?

Given that Japan declared war on the USA and also struck at the Philipines I think that would be enough, so no need to additionally risk the fleet in Pearl Harbour. With the Japanese (then the Germans) declaring war it would somewhat sidestep any isolationists in Congress (what would they say "Well, Japan may be at war with us, be we are not at war with Japan"?).

foxyboy:

quote:

But if that had happened I, and the rest of western Europe, would probably be speaking Russian today.

Why would you? The people in those countries behind the Iron Curtain didn't have to speak it. I know what you are getting at, it is just the "We'd all be speaking X language" thing is a bit silly.

quote:

Originally posted by Aaron_GT:
foxyboy:

quote:

But if that had happened I, and the rest of western Europe, would probably be speaking Russian today.

Why would you? The people in those countries behind the Iron Curtain didn't have to speak it. I know what you are getting at, it is just the "We'd all be speaking X language" thing is a bit silly.

No, of course we wouldn't. Even Stalin couldn't have forced the British to start learning foreign languages . I was just pointing out that although I don't believe America's involvement in WWII saved Britain from Hitler, I do believe that it saved Western Europe, including Britain, from Stalin.

if the fleet had been caught at sea the devistation would have been FAR worse, the battlewagons lost at pearl would not have been salvaged along with significantly more lives lost. and the Japanese would not have stopped their attack regardless, they would have hunted down the fleet and sank them a sea. 6 Japanses carriers would have devistated our 3 and the battleships. and Pearl would probably have had ground troops landed, furthur expanding Japan's conquests.

quote:

Originally posted by leitmotiv:
If you were Franklin Roosevelt, and you, indeed, knew the Japanese were going to strike Pearl Harbor, would you let them in order to side step the America First movement and the isolationists who were in the majority in December 1941? Most important, since your primary concern was reinforcing Europe before the Germans overran the USSR, how could you be confident that the Germans would declare war on the U.S. after the Japanese attacked the U.S. (as Hitler actually did---some believe this was his greatest blunder of the war)?

Would not FR have had to ensure that there was no radar coverage at PH to succeed in his assumed goal?


Best Regards,
MB_Avro.

In order to do that you need to be cold and merciless on the verge of the inhuman - I wouldn't know any hints FDR was so.

Anyway there are too many ifs.

On the other hand, I would not be too concerned about a possibly approaching Japanese fleet if I knew that their torpedoes would not work in Pearl's shallow water and if I trusted my brand-new radar.

I assume disasters are **** ups rather than conspiracies until proven otherwise. Heck, if you believe Taleb's black swan theory half the successes are due to accident too.

quote:

Originally posted by MB_Avro_UK:


Would not FR have had to ensure that there was no radar coverage at PH to succeed in his assumed goal?


Best Regards,
MB_Avro.

FDR pondered long and hard about how to remove the radar without arousing suspicion of a Japanese attack, after a long night with Tzun Tsu he came upon the notion of masking the Japanese raid with a flight of cunningly scheduled B-17s, so nefarious and manyfold were his machinations.

Ploughman nailed the radar matter. For me the most persuasive conspiracy book on PH is this one. Whether you accept all his arguments or not, it is a fascinating picture by a man who lived through the times, and was a naval officer in the USN:

http://www.abebooks.com/servlet/SearchResults?sts=t&tn=DAY+OF+DECEIT&x=0&y=0

The Japanese Army wanted to throw their strength against the teetering USSR. They favored using the fleet to drive into Malaya and the Dutch East Indies to grab the oil they needed to prosecute the war. They cunningly wanted to hit all the weak partners, Britain, the Dutch, and the Sovs, who were on the ropes in front of Moscow, without striking the U.S. posssessions. This was Churchill's and Stalin's nightmare. FDR would not have been able to do a thing. Stalin would not have been able to shift the Siberian divisions defending Mongolia to the West where they saved Moscow. The Japanese would have had all the oil they needed. This is why Yamamoto's capability as a strategist has been questioned harshly since WWII. Yamamoto's closest advisors, including Admiral Ugaki, warned him the surprise attack on Pearl would succeed in uniting the Americans and enraging them to prosecute a war without mercy until Japan was destroyed. He ignored all the prophets in his headquarters. He believed he could get the U.S. on the ropes and force a negotiated peace after seizing Pearl Harbor sometime in 1942. This has to be the second biggest miscalculation of the war.

A few years ago the United States Naval Institute's NAVAL HISTORY magazine published a fascinating story about the Red Cross and Pearl Harbor. Some months before the attack on 7 Dec, the American Red Cross suddenly went on a building manic in Hawaii. They built new facilities and sent medical staff to Hawaii in numbers. Everyone aware of this was puzzled because Hawaii was seen as a backwater of the Empire where nothing was expected to happen. Furthermore, some people in the highest echelons Red Cross were given to understand something was expected to happen in Hawaii.

These two are perfectly independent:

A. Willfully challenging Japan to either peace to our conditions or war in our time, with the calculated risk that the Japanese might open the war with a surprise attack against Pearl Harbour.

B. Knowing date and plan of the attack and coolly letting it happen.