PDA

View Full Version : help me prove we can see the future but see it upside down



raaaid
12-22-2010, 12:34 PM
here you have 1.000.001 pseudo random secuence of digits:

wait for it to load fully:

http://www.eveandersson.com/pi/digits/1000000

the game is put a secunce of four numbers trying to guess it right like for example 3498 and count how many times the page searcher finds it for this case it would find it 108 times so i would have won 8%

odds say you should get right one hundred in a million of numbers:

probaility to get right a for digit decimal number:

1/(10*10*10*10)=1/10.000 and you try a million times so by probabilty you should get right 100

so if you get an avearge 110 in your four digit number search youve won an average of 10% but if you find an avearge of ninety% in your searches you lost 10%

<span class="ev_code_RED">IMPORTANT: TAKING INTO ACCOUNT THAT WHEN THE LINE BREAKS 3/50 SECUENCES ARE NOT COUNTED YOU HAVE TO ADD 6 TO EVERY RESULT YOU OBTAIN TO PLAY FAIRLY</span>

raaaid
12-22-2010, 12:34 PM
here you have 1.000.001 pseudo random secuence of digits:

wait for it to load fully:

http://www.eveandersson.com/pi/digits/1000000

the game is put a secunce of four numbers trying to guess it right like for example 3498 and count how many times the page searcher finds it for this case it would find it 108 times so i would have won 8%

odds say you should get right one hundred in a million of numbers:

probaility to get right a for digit decimal number:

1/(10*10*10*10)=1/10.000 and you try a million times so by probabilty you should get right 100

so if you get an avearge 110 in your four digit number search youve won an average of 10% but if you find an avearge of ninety% in your searches you lost 10%

<span class="ev_code_RED">IMPORTANT: TAKING INTO ACCOUNT THAT WHEN THE LINE BREAKS 3/50 SECUENCES ARE NOT COUNTED YOU HAVE TO ADD 6 TO EVERY RESULT YOU OBTAIN TO PLAY FAIRLY</span>

Zeus-cat
12-22-2010, 03:47 PM
Just for kicks I did your little experiment. I came up with 108. Then I realized that your little experiment will always undercount the number of occurences by an average of 6% no matter what 4 digit sequence you choose.

Do you see the problem?

raaaid
12-22-2010, 03:57 PM
im not sure i counted the numbers of 0 and it turned out to be 100.000 as it should

why you think so? maybe im right

if you keep at it you can win but youll lose more, in your case a 6%

raaaid
12-22-2010, 04:04 PM
maybe thats a pattern:

most number a human can think is rare in nature

is artificial against natural

Zeus-cat
12-22-2010, 04:23 PM
Your experiment is flawed.

Huge hint: Look at the way the 1,000,000 digits of pi are listed on that page.

raaaid
12-22-2010, 04:32 PM
they are listed in columns so what

have you searched for 0s?

youll find 100.000 how do you explain this if its flawed?

the pattern in chaos is it is natural contrary to human artificial structures like 1111

raaaid
12-22-2010, 05:27 PM
oh i see you mean the line gets cut

is that right?

BillSwagger
12-22-2010, 05:31 PM
how does that prove or test the ability to see the future upside down?
btw,
I won the first time by 15%,
and i lost the second time by 20%.

Bill

M_Gunz
12-22-2010, 05:35 PM
It uses PI as a pseudo-random? Operative term being Pseudo meaning Fake?
Good old Raaid, can't go one step into the process without mistaking not-real with real!

When you can SEE THE FUTURE, let me know the winning lottery numbers but... just ME, okay? Then I'll believe you!

WTE_Galway
12-22-2010, 05:41 PM
<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote"><div class="ip-ubbcode-quote-title">quote:</div><div class="ip-ubbcode-quote-content">Originally posted by raaaid:
oh i see you mean the line gets cut

is that right? </div></BLOCKQUOTE>

numbers split by the end of line get missed by the browser search

raaaid
12-22-2010, 05:42 PM
that the line gets cut out every 50 digits would be equivalent to a gambler who bets on secuences of fifty games each time for a total of one million during his whole life

that shouldnt change the odds

i dont know maybe its just me but i keep losing thats why i ask

M_Gunz
12-22-2010, 05:43 PM
<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote"><div class="ip-ubbcode-quote-title">quote:</div><div class="ip-ubbcode-quote-content">Originally posted by raaaid:
the pattern in chaos is it is natural contrary to human artificial structures like 1111 </div></BLOCKQUOTE>

Is 1111 unnatural? No. Is PI chaos? No.

raaaid
12-22-2010, 05:49 PM
pi seems chaos for someone who doesnt know the pattern so in a way is chaotics

maybe if you had the formula of chaos you wouldnt think it any more chaotic


1111 is what in lottery is called an ugly number noone wants it


put it this way

i bet in a casino in a roulet of 10 numbers always at number 1111 on rows of fifty each day for a total of 1 million

what chance do i have to win?

1/100

thats the exact same game that using in that web the search option to find 1111

Zeus-cat
12-22-2010, 05:50 PM
Somebody got it. The line gets cut so you do not have 1,000,000 continous digits. You have 20,000 sets of 50 digits. The last three digits cannot be the start of a sequence of four, so your sample size has beeen reduced by 3/50 or 6%.

raaaid
12-22-2010, 05:52 PM
but would be any way to make a string search that takes into account the next line thing?

raaaid
12-22-2010, 05:58 PM
well wouldnt this be solved searching five string digits

with 5 string digits you can still play the game i think

raaaid
12-22-2010, 05:59 PM
and why wouldnt it be posible to have 1111 in the end of the line

thats an option

WTE_Galway
12-22-2010, 06:21 PM
<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote"><div class="ip-ubbcode-quote-title">quote:</div><div class="ip-ubbcode-quote-content">Originally posted by raaaid:
but would be any way to make a string search that takes into account the next line thing? </div></BLOCKQUOTE>

you need to do four searches

if your number is 1234 and * is the non-printable carriage return

you would search for

1234
1*234
12*34
123*4

you can experiment by highlighting a string that includes the end of line and copy/pasting that into the browser search.



<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote"><div class="ip-ubbcode-quote-title">quote:</div><div class="ip-ubbcode-quote-content">Originally posted by raaaid:
well wouldnt this be solved searching five string digits

with 5 string digits you can still play the game i think </div></BLOCKQUOTE>

5 digit strings makes it worse as now 8% are missed instead of 6%.

M_Gunz
12-22-2010, 06:25 PM
<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote"><div class="ip-ubbcode-quote-title">quote:</div><div class="ip-ubbcode-quote-content">Originally posted by raaaid:
that the line gets cut out every 50 digits </div></BLOCKQUOTE>

Means that any 4-number sequence loses 4 possible matches for every line due to the artificial line cuts.

Not that it matters because PI is determinate, not a true random. You can make better pseudo-randoms by taking the last digit of every stock quote for as long into the past as you want or can get digits for. Or for the best, closest to actual random number you can use a radioactive sample like a smoke detector and Geiger-counter connected to a PC and still due to finite sampling time you'll only get so close.

People can't even guess shuffled cards consistently enough to prove any ability to predict numbers, Raaaid. It's been tried and tried many times in colleges, even Harvard Univ, as studies into psychic powers LONG AGO.

If it was possible there would be professional lottery winners, and there are none even with real money at stake. None. And if you want to see if something -can- be done, cash rewards are the surest way!

3-number lotto pays 500:1. If I could hit 51% of the time and lose 49%, just 2% better than 50-50 then I'd be set just by playing 100 tickets per day yielding $1000 a day before taxes. I'd get keep over half of what I "earned", over $200,000 a year! The 3-number lottery has been working for decades, people have been trying to predict it for decades and NO ONE has done it yet even by just predicting without buying and seeing if they would have won (costs no money). If that doesn't send you a clue then it's because there's no one home to receive it.

There is a saying among people who DO understand statistics that the lottery is a tax on people who are bad at math. If you are not playing the lottery Raaid, then you should be arrested for tax evasion!

raaaid
12-22-2010, 06:55 PM
well still the game can be played if you add 6 to your result http://forums.ubi.com/groupee_common/emoticons/icon_smile.gif

would that be correct?

raaaid
12-22-2010, 07:04 PM
all right i tried adding it six and i think my point remains valid:

0000 80+6

1111 98+6

2222 85+6

3333 89+6

4444 72+6

5555 87+6

6666 83+6

7777 89+6
8888 87+6

9999 96+6

raaaid
12-22-2010, 07:53 PM
wow i must admitt you guys are smarter than me i wouldnt have figured out the break line thing in a million years so maybe you can help me with this one:

at a roulete the house has an edge of 1/37, the case of 0 on 37 numbers but i noticed something by experience that makes sense mathematically:

imagine you bet every time to a single number:

you have a chance to win of 1/37 and win 35 expectative of winning: 35 /37

expectative of losing: 36/37 and you lose one, expectative: 36/37 ( the 1/37 house edge is the difference between the winning and the losing)

now you bet at 35 numbers at the same time in such a way that when you win you win one and when you lose you lose 35

chance of winning 35/37 and win one expectative of winning: 35 /37

chance of losing: 2/37 and you lose 35 each time you lose , expectatives of losing: 70/37

<span class="ev_code_RED">the house edge is now 35/37 </span>

any light on this plz?

M_Gunz
12-22-2010, 08:22 PM
If you have a chance 1/37 then the house has chance 36/37. The payoff is not the odds.

When you go out from home and turn two corners it's only your familiarity with the area that gets you back, right?

raaaid
12-22-2010, 08:54 PM
i dont think it really matters, what i see:

if i play to one number <span class="ev_code_RED"> i win 35 euro</span> 1 TIME   <span class="ev_code_RED">out of 37 times </span>

<span class="ev_code_GREEN">i lose 36 times of 37 times 1 euro</span>

if i play to all numbers but two(0 and other)

<span class="ev_code_GREEN">i win one euro 35 times out of 37 </span>

while <span class="ev_code_RED"> i lose 35 euros</span> 2 TIMES   <span class="ev_code_RED"> out of 37 times</span>

raaaid
12-22-2010, 09:21 PM
besides i have more than verified that the method of multiplying the payoff by the odds and adding winning and loses works:

i bet at double red chance 1/4 payoff3 expectative 3/4

losing odds 3/ 4 -1 payoff losing expectative -3/4 http://forums.ubi.com/groupee_common/emoticons/icon_smile.gif

raaaid
12-22-2010, 09:45 PM
<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote"><div class="ip-ubbcode-quote-title">quote:</div><div class="ip-ubbcode-quote-content">f i play to all numbers but two(0 and other)

i win one euro 35 times out of 37

while i lose 35 euros 2 TIMES   out of 37 times </div></BLOCKQUOTE>

this is so selfevident that it might even be right:

would you play a game in which you win one euro 35 times out of 37 times while you lose 35 euros two times out of 37?

raaaid
12-22-2010, 09:50 PM
hey the magic number 911 appears 911 times http://forums.ubi.com/images/smilies/88.gif

raaaid
12-22-2010, 09:57 PM
<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote"><div class="ip-ubbcode-quote-title">quote:</div><div class="ip-ubbcode-quote-content">3-number lotto pays 500:1 </div></BLOCKQUOTE>
thats nearly imposible to beat even if you know the future:

chance to get right a 3 digit decimal number is:

1/(10*10*10) = 1/1000 to be a fair game it should be paid 999% of what you played if you win

if you think about it you know youll lose 999 times out of 1000 thousand so if you lose in one thousand games 999 dollars in the one you get it right you should get the same 999 dollars you lose the other times

raaaid
12-23-2010, 01:13 AM
actually i dont understand how this non locality is not known

if you bet on 35 numbers your betting against your self   is not posible the number one and two turn out at the same time

so the proportion between winning an losing can be changed, at least to lose with huge more eficiency than the 1/37 house edge would say

so certain strategies vary the chances of winning or losing

M_Gunz
12-23-2010, 03:00 AM
<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote"><div class="ip-ubbcode-quote-title">quote:</div><div class="ip-ubbcode-quote-content">Originally posted by raaaid:
<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote"><div class="ip-ubbcode-quote-title">quote:</div><div class="ip-ubbcode-quote-content">3-number lotto pays 500:1 </div></BLOCKQUOTE>
thats nearly imposible to beat even if you know the future:

chance to get right a 3 digit decimal number is:

1/(10*10*10) = 1/1000 to be a fair game it should be paid 999% of what you played if you win

if you think about it you know youll lose 999 times out of 1000 thousand so if you lose in one thousand games 999 dollars in the one you get it right you should get the same 999 dollars you lose the other times </div></BLOCKQUOTE>

If the payoff matched the odds then winning would get you $1000 since you get the $1 you bet as well as the other $999.
BUT the 3 number payoff is 50% on the odds. The proceeds keep the system going with a real chunk going to charities.

However I showed how with just 2% ability to predict numbers I could clean up using only $100 in starting money. I would only have to be right 2% of the time day in and day out to attain a small fortune every year even AFTER taxes.

You have been saying ability to predict well over 2%. I showed how with only 2% anyone could become rich, and famous since such a feat would not only become known (they keep track of the winners as well as the numbers) but get investigated thoroughly since without cheating it is IMPOSSIBLE.

Go ahead and prove me wrong. Get your "see the future" system ready and post every day 100 3-digit numbers and match them next day to the daily winner here. (http://www.palottery.state.pa.us/) Specify either Midday or Evening when you post the 100 numbers. No cheating! Lets see if you win more than you lose in the long term or even in a month.

If you really want a large set of random numbers, look here. (http://www.palottery.state.pa.us/past-winning-numbers.aspx) Play your game with the last few years results.

M_Gunz
12-23-2010, 03:04 AM
<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote"><div class="ip-ubbcode-quote-title">quote:</div><div class="ip-ubbcode-quote-content">Originally posted by WTE_Galway:
<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote"><div class="ip-ubbcode-quote-title">quote:</div><div class="ip-ubbcode-quote-content">Originally posted by raaaid:
but would be any way to make a string search that takes into account the next line thing? </div></BLOCKQUOTE>

you need to do four searches

if your number is 1234 and * is the non-printable carriage return

you would search for

1234
1*234
12*34
123*4

you can experiment by highlighting a string that includes the end of line and copy/pasting that into the browser search.



<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote"><div class="ip-ubbcode-quote-title">quote:</div><div class="ip-ubbcode-quote-content">Originally posted by raaaid:
well wouldnt this be solved searching five string digits

with 5 string digits you can still play the game i think </div></BLOCKQUOTE>

5 digit strings makes it worse as now 8% are missed instead of 6%. </div></BLOCKQUOTE>

Or you could write a few lines of Perl (http://strawberryperl.com/) to check right 'through' the line-breaks.

raaaid
12-23-2010, 10:08 AM
<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote"><div class="ip-ubbcode-quote-title">quote:</div><div class="ip-ubbcode-quote-content">Originally posted by M_Gunz:
<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote"><div class="ip-ubbcode-quote-title">quote:</div><div class="ip-ubbcode-quote-content">Originally posted by raaaid:
<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote"><div class="ip-ubbcode-quote-title">quote:</div><div class="ip-ubbcode-quote-content">3-number lotto pays 500:1 </div></BLOCKQUOTE>
thats nearly imposible to beat even if you know the future:

chance to get right a 3 digit decimal number is:

1/(10*10*10) = 1/1000 to be a fair game it should be paid 999% of what you played if you win

if you think about it you know youll lose 999 times out of 1000 thousand so if you lose in one thousand games 999 dollars in the one you get it right you should get the same 999 dollars you lose the other times </div></BLOCKQUOTE>

If the payoff matched the odds then winning would get you $1000 since you get the $1 you bet as well as the other $999.
BUT the 3 number payoff is 50% on the odds. The proceeds keep the system going with a real chunk going to charities.

However I showed how with just 2% ability to predict numbers I could clean up using only $100 in starting money. I would only have to be right 2% of the time day in and day out to attain a small fortune every year even AFTER taxes.

You have been saying ability to predict well over 2%. I showed how with only 2% anyone could become rich, and famous since such a feat would not only become known (they keep track of the winners as well as the numbers) but get investigated thoroughly since without cheating it is IMPOSSIBLE.

Go ahead and prove me wrong. Get your "see the future" system ready and post every day 100 3-digit numbers and match them next day to the daily winner here. (http://www.palottery.state.pa.us/) Specify either Midday or Evening when you post the 100 numbers. No cheating! Lets see if you win more than you lose in the long term or even in a month.

If you really want a large set of random numbers, look here. (http://www.palottery.state.pa.us/past-winning-numbers.aspx) Play your game with the last few years results. </div></BLOCKQUOTE>

if they pay you 500 when they should pay you 1000 their edge is 50%

you should predict the future with 75%+1 accuracy to win