Euro broke the 1,50$ treshold

[Bewolf]

Well yeah, so it's official, the Euroo broke the psycholocly important 1,50$ exchange rate. That is more due to the weakness of the Dollar then the Euro.

Germany can cope with this relativly well. 75% of all business is done in Euros anways, and the raising inner European trade business helps offset the negative export effects as well. Oil is quite a bit cheaper then those country dealing with it purely in Dollars, too. last but not least Germany is trading with basic machinery a lot, which is much less effected then usual goods. So it's not all negative here. France and Itally have it quite a bit harder to bear. What about other european countries, though. Anybody willing to give an input?

If this goes on, expect the Euro too take the role of the world lead currency within a decade.
The only way for the US to counteract would a sharp raise in interest rates. But with the country currently in recession, I doubt they can afford that.

[foxyboy1964]

Any idea what the EU would like the Euro to be worth? Do they see this as good or bad for the EU?

[Bewolf]

In general a strong Euro is a very good thing. it prevents inflation and gives the currency more weight on the world market. The strengh of the Euroo is also justified by an alltogether strong european economy. The last decade saw countless reforms and streamlining in Europe to bring everything back to first line.

The problem is the weak Dollar and all the other currencies coupled to the Dollar. Exporting Euro goods into these countries means a raise in price there, and a dwindling of competition. Soo all the european nations exporting goods into dollar dependant countries lose a lot of cash. An exchange rate of 1,50 was long considered the dangerous line. Already are big companies starting to throw out emplyoees to stay competive. On the other hand the weak Dollar greatly benefits the US, as they are able to offer their goods very cheap on the world markets. My suspicion is, exactly that phenomenon, coupled with the current recession in the US, is what forces the US to kkeep it's exchange rates so low. It's a dangerous gamble, though. On the one hand the weak dollar helps the US economy and the ppl to deal with their debts. On the other hand it drives teh Dollar into a very unfavourable position compared to the Euro. More and more countries already thought about switching to Euros as their reserve currency, because keeping the dollar, while that one loses worth, does appear to be a very bad bargin.

[raaaid]

well seems the europeans forge legally less money

[arthursmedley]

If it carries on OPEC will require payment for oil in Euro's rather than $ in new year 2009.

This is product of successive, massive budget deficits. What are they running up these deficits on? Defence spending.

Bewolf; Germany still has manufacturing industry! I can just remember when UK did too.
Now we appear to make our living by shuffling other peoples money around.

I dont think thats sustainable.

[Bewolf]

Originally posted by arthursmedley:
If it carries on OPEC will require payment for oil in Euro's rather than $ in new year 2009.

This is product of successive, massive budget deficits. What are they running up these deficits on? Defence spending.

Bewolf; Germany still has manufacturing industry! I can just remember when UK did too.
Now we appear to make our living by shuffling other peoples money around.

I dont think thats sustainable.

Agreed. Manufactoring industry imho is very important. You are just waaaaay to dependant if you fully switch to a service industry only as you have no basis anymore to influence the internatiional business. Another factor is that service industry solely relies on psychology, nothing "substantial" anymore.

[foxyboy1964]

Originally posted by arthursmedley:
If it carries on OPEC will require payment for oil in Euro's rather than $ in new year 2009.

I'm pretty sure I read somewhere that OPEC was going to do that anyway. Maybe not in 2009 but...

[foxyboy1964]

Originally posted by Bewolf:
Agreed. Manufactoring industry imho is very important. You are just waaaaay to dependant if you fully switch to a service industry only as you have no basis anymore to influence the internatiional business. Another factor is that service industry solely relies on psychology, nothing "substantial" anymore.
True, but, if we think in terms of a U.S. of Europe it would be perfectly feasible for one state or city (London) to be the main financial centre. I mean, I dont imagine there is too much manufacturing in New York, but it never done them any harm.

[LEBillfish]

Euro?...Dollar?....Expect this to be the next world currency;

Chinese money is called Renminbi (RMB) means "The People's Currency". The popular unit of RMB is yuan"
1 yuan equals 10 jiao, 1 jiao equals 10 fen. There are parts of China where the yuan is also known as Kuai and Jiao is known as mao. Chinese currency is issued in the following denominations: one, two, five, ten, twenty, fifty and one hundred yuan; one, two and five jiao; and one, two and five fen.

[Low_Flyer_MkIX]

Time to check out Robert Newman's History of Oil again.

http://www.spinwatch.org/content/view/3298/24/

[TheGozr]

Irak wanted to convert to Euro for the Petrol before the war.... interesting isn't it..

[Bewolf]

Originally posted by LEBillfish:
Euro?...Dollar?....Expect this to be the next world currency;

Chinese money is called Renminbi (RMB) means "The People's Currency". The popular unit of RMB is yuan"
1 yuan equals 10 jiao, 1 jiao equals 10 fen. There are parts of China where the yuan is also known as Kuai and Jiao is known as mao. Chinese currency is issued in the following denominations: one, two, five, ten, twenty, fifty and one hundred yuan; one, two and five jiao; and one, two and five fen.

That will evenntually indeed happen, but I give it quite a bit more time before that. China is a bit unstable still, and most of all, not the most reliable when it comes to financial trustworthyness. A world lead currency must have the trust of other nations. And until China doesn't get quite a bit more economic weight and integrity, the Euro may or may not fill the void.

[leitmotiv]

Buy shares in gold mining stocks. This is going to be 1980 all over again---oil soaring, dollar falling like a stone, property trashed. Gold is nearly $1000 an ounce---when it hits $2000, it will be at the adjusted 1980 price. Meanwhile, manufacturing stocks like Apple are getting killed. Sauve qui peut!

[Bewolf]

Originally posted by foxyboy1964:
<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote"><div class="ip-ubbcode-quote-title">quote:</div><div class="ip-ubbcode-quote-content">Originally posted by Bewolf:
Agreed. Manufactoring industry imho is very important. You are just waaaaay to dependant if you fully switch to a service industry only as you have no basis anymore to influence the internatiional business. Another factor is that service industry solely relies on psychology, nothing "substantial" anymore.
True, but, if we think in terms of a U.S. of Europe it would be perfectly feasible for one state or city (London) to be the main financial centre. I mean, I dont imagine there is too much manufacturing in New York, but it never done them any harm. </div></BLOCKQUOTE>

There will be soome centralisation no doubt. But I do not see London becoming much more important then it already is until the UK adopts the Euro. And that is not going to happen anytime soon.

[HayateAce]

A universal world currency is one of the stepping stones to the return of Jesus. Start rounding up your affairs gentlemen.

http://media.ubi.com/us/forum_images/gf-glomp.gif

[foxyboy1964]

Originally posted by Bewolf:
But I do not see London becoming much more important then it already is until the UK adopts the Euro.
Exactly. The points you made about the lack of manufacturing in the UK and it's love affair with financial services may spur the UK to adopt the Euro, in order to secure a place as the financial centre. Although I agree, I don't see it happening anytime soon either.


Originally posted by Low Flyer:
Time to check out Robert Newman's History of Oil again.
Wow, that is some scarey stuff. Almost makes me feel glad I'm not young anymore.

[roybaty]

I keep thinking "I have to learn some rural survival skills" of late http://forums.ubi.com/images/smilies/51.gif

I dunno how to hunt, build shelters in the forest, etc. Damn urban life!!!



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Bewolf
Picture of Bewolf

Posted Wed February 27 2008 08:32

[leitmotiv]

We are not even near the adjusted 1980 price for a barrel of oil, which was the absolute peak to date. Vicissitudes of the markets. China is likely heading for the tank. If you are cunning, there are opportunities in a down cycle.

[ploughman]

Originally posted by Bewolf:
<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote"><div class="ip-ubbcode-quote-title">quote:</div><div class="ip-ubbcode-quote-content">Originally posted by foxyboy1964:
<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote"><div class="ip-ubbcode-quote-title">quote:</div><div class="ip-ubbcode-quote-content">Originally posted by Bewolf:
Agreed. Manufactoring industry imho is very important. You are just waaaaay to dependant if you fully switch to a service industry only as you have no basis anymore to influence the internatiional business. Another factor is that service industry solely relies on psychology, nothing "substantial" anymore.


True, but, if we think in terms of a U.S. of Europe it would be perfectly feasible for one state or city (London) to be the main financial centre. I mean, I dont imagine there is too much manufacturing in New York, but it never done them any harm. </div></BLOCKQUOTE>

There will be soome centralisation no doubt. But I do not see London becoming much more important then it already is until the UK adopts the Euro. And that is not going to happen anytime soon. </div></BLOCKQUOTE>

Maybe...the new £20 notes in the UK look suspciously 'Euro' like. Word is they're to psychologically prepare the UK for the Euro.

Tin hat?

[Bewolf]

Originally posted by Ploughman:
<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote"><div class="ip-ubbcode-quote-title">quote:</div><div class="ip-ubbcode-quote-content">Originally posted by Bewolf:
<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote"><div class="ip-ubbcode-quote-title">quote:</div><div class="ip-ubbcode-quote-content">Originally posted by foxyboy1964:
<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote"><div class="ip-ubbcode-quote-title">quote:</div><div class="ip-ubbcode-quote-content">Originally posted by Bewolf:
Agreed. Manufactoring industry imho is very important. You are just waaaaay to dependant if you fully switch to a service industry only as you have no basis anymore to influence the internatiional business. Another factor is that service industry solely relies on psychology, nothing "substantial" anymore.


True, but, if we think in terms of a U.S. of Europe it would be perfectly feasible for one state or city (London) to be the main financial centre. I mean, I dont imagine there is too much manufacturing in New York, but it never done them any harm. </div></BLOCKQUOTE>

There will be soome centralisation no doubt. But I do not see London becoming much more important then it already is until the UK adopts the Euro. And that is not going to happen anytime soon. </div></BLOCKQUOTE>

Maybe...the new £20 notes in the UK look suspciously 'Euro' like. Word is they're to psychologically prepare the UK for the Euro.

Tin hat? </div></BLOCKQUOTE>

Maybe,, but I'd be all for it. London has seen a huge financial expertise for the last 200 years. Not making use of this huge knowledge would be a great waste. I'd have no problem in seeing the ECB move to London once the Euro is there. That would give Britain much better chances in developing more service jobs, too, and strenghen it's reputation as one of "the" world financial hubs.

[Red_lightning1]

Originally posted by Ploughman:
Maybe...the new £20 notes in the UK look suspciously 'Euro' like. Word is they're to psychologically prepare the UK for the Euro.

Tin hat?

The preparation began in 1998.

http://www.usmint.gov/kids/cartoons/coinsOfTheWorld/html/france/images/slide_11c.jpg

The 1 and 2 Euro coins.

http://www.randi.org/images/UKcoin-full.jpg

The 2 Pound coin

[Bewolf]

Originally posted by Red_lightning1:
<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote"><div class="ip-ubbcode-quote-title">quote:</div><div class="ip-ubbcode-quote-content">Originally posted by Ploughman:
Maybe...the new £20 notes in the UK look suspciously 'Euro' like. Word is they're to psychologically prepare the UK for the Euro.

Tin hat?

The preparation began in 1998.

http://www.usmint.gov/kids/cartoons/coinsOfTheWorld/html/france/images/slide_11c.jpg

The 1 and 2 Euro coins.

http://www.randi.org/images/UKcoin-full.jpg

The 2 Pound coin </div></BLOCKQUOTE>


Hahaha. Man, that's subtle.

[VW-IceFire]

Looks like you both copied the Toonie http://forums.ubi.com/groupee_common/emoticons/icon_smile.gif

http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/en/a/a2/Toonie-obverse2004.jpg
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Toonie

Introduced in 1996! http://forums.ubi.com/groupee_common/emoticons/icon_biggrin.gif

Canadian dollar is also up against the US dollar. We rose very sharply late in 2007 and we were holding par for par for a few months but apparently we're on the march upwards again. Now we'd like to see stuff cost less.

[Choctaw111]

I remember when the Euro's were relatively new. The exchange rate, when I was in the Balkans, was $.57 cents per Euro. Man, look at it now.

[roybaty]

Don't get cocky IceFire, Canada has oil and oil shale. If things got bad as surreal and ridiculous as it seems now, we could theoretically go to war in spite of the fact it would be a foolish idea http://forums.ubi.com/groupee_common/emoticons/icon_frown.gif.

*sigh* http://forums.ubi.com/images/smilies/51.gif

[tHeBaLrOgRoCkS]

The idea of my country becoming nothing but a big giant floating helpdesk/bank fills me with nausea.

I accept that as things stand now it may be an inevitablitity but I can't help feeling somewhat nostalgic for the days when the UK used to actually produce.

I guess though having not worked in the manufacturing industry to any great extent its easier to feel nostalgic for such things. And I am under no illusions that there is a human cost involved in such an industry, god knows I wouldnt want to work in a mine.

All the same it feels to me that a country that basis its growth and development on the service industry is dooming itself to a slow psycological death.

my two cents and maybe drifting off the topic of this topic?

As for the fight for resources it was only a year or two ago I think, that I actualy heard a man on the bbc's newsnight programe actualy moot the idea that we might have to consider a war with Norway if supplies of oil became to low http://forums.ubi.com/images/smilies/blink.gif.. I wish I could remember his bloody name but it escapes me now. The truth is indeed sometimes stranger than fiction.

[crucislancer]

Originally posted by roybaty:
Don't get cocky IceFire, Canada has oil and oil shale. If things got bad as surreal and ridiculous as it seems now, we could theoretically go to war in spite of the fact it would be a foolish idea http://forums.ubi.com/groupee_common/emoticons/icon_frown.gif.

*sigh* http://forums.ubi.com/images/smilies/51.gif

I don't think you will have to worry about that. While I don't think I've ever seen the dollar sink this low, it will eventually stabilize and recover, maybe not to previous levels, but it will.

I've been seeing the results on a ground level perspective of late. My job is domestic and international shipping for a manufacturer, and I talk to freight forwarders all the time. Since late November, export volume is up, import volume down. The ports are jammed with export goods to the point that bookings for container space need to be made in some cases 3 weeks in advance, rather then 4 days that we are used to. And, equipment, mainly containers, isn't coming back as fast since the import volume has gone down. The results are foreign customers, anxious to take advantage of the week dollar, are placing orders that can be filled, but not shipped quickly enough. At work, I have nearly 250 cubic meters of freight that I've had to sit on for the past couple of weeks. And I don't have a big warehouse.

[HayateAce]

Innnnteresting Crucis.

[VW-IceFire]

Originally posted by roybaty:
Don't get cocky IceFire, Canada has oil and oil shale. If things got bad as surreal and ridiculous as it seems now, we could theoretically go to war in spite of the fact it would be a foolish idea http://forums.ubi.com/groupee_common/emoticons/icon_frown.gif.

*sigh* http://forums.ubi.com/images/smilies/51.gif
Err um what? You want our toonies? Donuts? I know...must be the coffee http://forums.ubi.com/groupee_common/emoticons/icon_biggrin.gif

Everyone has oil. Heck the US has a rather substantial oil reserve of its own.

[PhantomKira]

Ah, economics. Don't you love it! (I do. A good economics discussion, Yay!)

Yes the US has oil, but there are problems.

It's comparatively difficult to get at (when compared to readily available East Asian oil).

This difficulty in obtaining it means a higher end product price. Higher oil price means higher cost of everything that requires oil. Sure you think about your cost at the pump, but what about the ships that bring things from overseas? They run on oil based fuels too, meaning that everything they transport gets more expensive.

The Western economies depend on cheap oil; usually thought of for transportation (gasoline, diesel), but think of all the other things that rely on oil... chief among them: Plastics.

The biggest problem regarding oil is that we're using, as our main form of fuel for transportation/logistics, the same stuff that we use for a million other purposes, from computers to medical supplies, to food packaging. And that's just plastics.

[Bewolf]

Originally posted by tHeBaLrOgRoCkS:
The idea of my country becoming nothing but a big giant floating helpdesk/bank fills me with nausea.

I accept that as things stand now it may be an inevitablitity but I can't help feeling somewhat nostalgic for the days when the UK used to actually produce.

I guess though having not worked in the manufacturing industry to any great extent its easier to feel nostalgic for such things. And I am under no illusions that there is a human cost involved in such an industry, god knows I wouldnt want to work in a mine.

All the same it feels to me that a country that basis its growth and development on the service industry is dooming itself to a slow psycological death.

my two cents and maybe drifting off the topic of this topic?

As for the fight for resources it was only a year or two ago I think, that I actualy heard a man on the bbc's newsnight programe actualy moot the idea that we might have to consider a war with Norway if supplies of oil became to low http://forums.ubi.com/images/smilies/blink.gif.. I wish I could remember his bloody name but it escapes me now. The truth is indeed sometimes stranger than fiction.

Beeing a manufacturing country does not nessecarily mean you have to get down the mines, though that usually makes sense. But Germany for exammple hardly has ressources left of her own after millenia of mining. Most stuff is imported. The trick is to make these ressources into something useful, becoome the best in it and find areas where it still sells.

[Pirschjaeger]

With China developing its manufacturing base, Malaysia decided to focus on medical technologies while Japan with its lack of natural resources also focused on technology.

Isn't the UK trying to do the same?

[Bewolf]

Originally posted by Pirschjaeger:
With China developing its manufacturing base, Malaysia decided to focus on medical technologies while Japan with its lack of natural resources also focused on technology.

Isn't the UK trying to do the same?

AFAIK, the UK industry has long died a pianful death, with Thatcher giving it it's deathblow. Since then the UK focused on the financial sector and the service industry. But the UK guys here I am sure are able to give you a better picture.

[Friendly_flyer]

Originally posted by raaaid:
well seems the europeans forge legally less money

Sometimes you have the most astounding observations, Sir!

[stathem]

Originally posted by Bewolf:
<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote"><div class="ip-ubbcode-quote-title">quote:</div><div class="ip-ubbcode-quote-content">Originally posted by Pirschjaeger:
With China developing its manufacturing base, Malaysia decided to focus on medical technologies while Japan with its lack of natural resources also focused on technology.

Isn't the UK trying to do the same?

AFAIK, the UK industry has long died a pianful death, with Thatcher giving it it's deathblow. Since then the UK focused on the financial sector and the service industry. But the UK guys here I am sure are able to give you a better picture. </div></BLOCKQUOTE>

Well, I still work in the UK manufacturing sector as a Product Development manager, as part of a European business unit but American owned. And it's a struggle; we have the 'pile it high, sell it cheap mentality' imposed on us, still trying to complete on price instead of forging ahead trying to develop better, higher tech products to lead the market. We're heavily intregrated, and my French and German colleagues (and probably Spanish too but I've nothadd chance to meet them yet) feel the lack of investment too, and think that the short termism is possibly fatal.

So much of manufactuing is now global, but there's still a bit too much political in-fighting between countries fighting for their own interests sometimes.

[Bewolf]

Originally posted by stathem:
<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote"><div class="ip-ubbcode-quote-title">quote:</div><div class="ip-ubbcode-quote-content">Originally posted by Bewolf:
<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote"><div class="ip-ubbcode-quote-title">quote:</div><div class="ip-ubbcode-quote-content">Originally posted by Pirschjaeger:
With China developing its manufacturing base, Malaysia decided to focus on medical technologies while Japan with its lack of natural resources also focused on technology.

Isn't the UK trying to do the same?

AFAIK, the UK industry has long died a pianful death, with Thatcher giving it it's deathblow. Since then the UK focused on the financial sector and the service industry. But the UK guys here I am sure are able to give you a better picture. </div></BLOCKQUOTE>

Well, I still work in the UK manufacturing sector as a Product Development manager, as part of a European business unit but American owned. And it's a struggle; we have the 'pile it high, sell it cheap mentality' imposed on us, still trying to complete on price instead of forging ahead trying to develop better, higher tech products to lead the market. We're heavily intregrated, and my French and German colleagues (and probably Spanish too but I've nothadd chance to meet them yet) feel the lack of investment too, and think that the short termism is possibly fatal.

So much of manufactuing is now global, but there's still a bit too much political in-fighting between countries fighting for their own interests sometimes. </div></BLOCKQUOTE>

Sometimes? I fear way too often. Especially the french and the poles are a pest in this regard with their "great nation" complexes. A lot of countries have not arrived in the EU yet but still play their own games.
But, c'est la vie.

[arthursmedley]

UK manufacturing has been in steady decline for decades.
A whole combination of factors at work but short-termism, lack of reinvestment, poor management, strong unions in the 50's and 60's are all a factor.
Ever heard of Lord and Lady Docker?
They were the Posh 'n Becks of the nineteen fifties; gold plated Rolls-Royce, Mink coats,etc.
He was chairman of the BSA group in the fifties when it was an enormous manufacturing conglomerate. They owned most of the british motorcycle industry, large machine tool interests, all earning vital foreign currency.
Profits were squandered in share dividends rather than reinvested in plant and design.
Our banking and finance system encouraged it.

Result; by the late 60's, although their designers had great ideas the plant was all prewar- and knackered- and they had no way to compete with modern factories in postwar Japan and Germany.

Add in very poor management when engineers were replaced in senior positions by accountants and it was all over by the early seventies.

We shot ourselves in the foot.

Apply all this to British car industry also.
'

[Bewolf]

Originally posted by arthursmedley:
UK manufacturing has been in steady decline for decades.
A whole combination of factors at work but short-termism, lack of reinvestment, poor management, strong unions in the 50's and 60's are all a factor.
Ever heard of Lord and Lady Docker?
They were the Posh 'n Becks of the nineteen fifties; gold plated Rolls-Royce, Mink coats,etc.
He was chairman of the BSA group in the fifties when it was an enormous manufacturing conglomerate. They owned most of the british motorcycle industry, large machine tool interests, all earning vital foreign currency.
Profits were squandered in share dividends rather than reinvested in plant and design.
Our banking and finance system encouraged it.

Result; by the late 60's, although their designers had great ideas the plant was all prewar- and knackered- and they had no way to compete with modern factories in postwar Japan and Germany.

Add in very poor management when engineers were replaced in senior positions by accountants and it was all over by the early seventies.

We shot ourselves in the foot.

Apply all this to British car industry also.
'

Yeah, the story of the british car industry is a tragic one indeed. So much history, so much pride. And nowadays it's non existant anymore. A real shame.