raaaid

12-18-2010, 07:46 AM

folklore knows if you are in a winning streak you have to keep betting while if you are losing is better to retire

ill prove this is mathematically true and logic:

lets analize the odds of following this startegy in a single game

my startegy is bet in pairs, on draw(one win one lose) i keep gambling, on losing i retire (one lose one lose), i only keep gambling on win(one win one win) or on draw

in this universe the first two posible outcomes are:

00=win or 11=lose

01 or 10 doesnt exist in this universe cause if this was the case i would keep gambling, i bet 0.5 euro in ech game

so the first two posible games that exist in the universe of this staregy are:

win or lose 00 or 11 for this two theres a chance of 1/4 each profit=0

the next posible outcomes in this universe are:

ww or wl with a chance 1/16 profit 1 euro

then www or wwl chance 1/64 profit 2 euro

then wwww or wwwl chance 1/256 profit 3 euro

then wwwww or wwwwl chance 1/1024 profit 4 euro

...

these are the only posible outcomes of a single game with this strategy the rest just dont exist

so now its just a matter of adding the odds:

1/16+ 2/64 +3/256 +4/ 1024 ...=0.109375

so following the staregy of keeping in a lucky strike and retiring on a bad one gives you a 10% edge

popular folklore is right on this one

ill prove this is mathematically true and logic:

lets analize the odds of following this startegy in a single game

my startegy is bet in pairs, on draw(one win one lose) i keep gambling, on losing i retire (one lose one lose), i only keep gambling on win(one win one win) or on draw

in this universe the first two posible outcomes are:

00=win or 11=lose

01 or 10 doesnt exist in this universe cause if this was the case i would keep gambling, i bet 0.5 euro in ech game

so the first two posible games that exist in the universe of this staregy are:

win or lose 00 or 11 for this two theres a chance of 1/4 each profit=0

the next posible outcomes in this universe are:

ww or wl with a chance 1/16 profit 1 euro

then www or wwl chance 1/64 profit 2 euro

then wwww or wwwl chance 1/256 profit 3 euro

then wwwww or wwwwl chance 1/1024 profit 4 euro

...

these are the only posible outcomes of a single game with this strategy the rest just dont exist

so now its just a matter of adding the odds:

1/16+ 2/64 +3/256 +4/ 1024 ...=0.109375

so following the staregy of keeping in a lucky strike and retiring on a bad one gives you a 10% edge

popular folklore is right on this one