Help Needed !!!

[dany20mh]

Hi , My English Is Not Good , Please Excuse Me For This ...

I Stuck At Rome Chapter 1 And I Can't Collect One Needed Item To Finish An Event .

In Fair Game Event , I Need Replica Hidden Blade And It Must Be Collect In Another Event Named Close Shave .

I Have 25.35 % Chance Item Drop And It's Mean I Must Get An Item For Maximum Play An Event For 4 Times , But I Play It 6 Times To Finish The Event And 10 Times To Get This Item And I Cant Get It ...

Please Help Me With This ...

[st0ph]

I'm not sure EXACTLY how the drop percentage works, but 25% Chance Item Drop does not mean 25% chance of each click means you'll get that item.

I think it works something like this... Each item has it's own chance at being dropped each time you execute an event. For example, a rare item might only have a drop chance of 20%. Which would mean if your Shadow skill gave you 25% drop rate - this would mean 25% of 20% = 5% drop rate for that item. So you would expect to get the item around once for every 20 "Execute" clicks.

Hope that makes sense!

Correct me if I'm wrong, but it's something like that http://forums.ubi.com/groupee_common/emoticons/icon_smile.gif

[Doh042]

Originally posted by st0ph:
I'm not sure EXACTLY how the drop percentage works, but 25% Chance Item Drop does not mean 25% chance of each click means you'll get that item.

I think it works something like this... Each item has it's own chance at being dropped each time you execute an event. For example, a rare item might only have a drop chance of 20%. Which would mean if your Shadow skill gave you 25% drop rate - this would mean 25% of 20% = 5% drop rate for that item. So you would expect to get the item around once for every 20 "Execute" clicks.

Hope that makes sense!

Correct me if I'm wrong, but it's something like that http://forums.ubi.com/groupee_common/emoticons/icon_smile.gif
You're very close.

If your shadow skill indicates 25%, it means a 25% increase over the object's base drop rate.

Assuming an object has a drop rate of 40%, adding 25% of that (40 * 1.25) would give the total drop rate: 50% chance per execute

Now, the way drops and statistic work is another interesting topic. A 50% chance to occur event (like a coin toss) doesn't mean you are guaranteed both results after 2 tosses; it means every toss has a 50% chance of giving you the predicted outcome (and obviously 50% chance of giving you the opposite).

In 2 coin toss, you have only 25% chance of seeing head come up twice, 50% chance of seeing 1 of both, and 25% of seeing tail come up twice.

To predict the general amount of attempts you need to get an item, you need to know its base drop rate (hidden), and then calculate the chance of NOT obtaining it, multiplied by the amount of attempts you're going to do.

Let's say you have a 10% chance of getting precious stones. Every Execute would give you a 90% chance of NOT getting any stones. The chance of not getting any stones in 3 executes is thus 90% * 90% * 90% = 72.9%.

There's never a moment where you are guaranteed to get them, but there is a point in time where the chance to get at least 1 stone is getting pretty high.

Tyler Sigman explains it better than I do over in this feature on gamasutra, which is a read I highly recommend: http://www.gamasutra.com/view/...king_its_.php?page=1 (http://www.gamasutra.com/view/feature/1801/statistically_speaking_its_.php?page=1)